Using Predictive Analytics to Identify At-Risk Donors and Prevent Attrition

Donor retention is generally more cost-effective than acquiring new supporters, but it remains a continuous challenge across sectors. According to Blackbaud’s donorCentrics^® Collaborative Benchmarking, the median retention rate for new donors hovers around just 24%, while repeat donors are retained at much higher rates—providing reliable, ongoing support. However, even supporters who have donated consistently in the past may eventually stop giving if their engagement wanes.

Nurturing a healthy donor retention program is much like a farmer tenderly caring for the land. My parents are organic farmers, tending a small farm that has been in our family for 75 years. Farming, like fundraising, requires thoughtful planning, consistent care, and the ability to navigate ever-changing variables. Farmers maintain the soil, plant with intention, and monitor the environment to ensure reliable harvests year after year—not just one bumper crop that depletes the land.

The same principles apply to cultivating a donor pipeline. A healthy donor base isn’t built on one-time gifts or short-term wins; it grows through ongoing engagement and retention. When you focus on long-term relationships, your supporters’ impact increases over time.

Just as my farmer parents carefully steward the land to ensure a reliable harvest, your team can monitor donor milestones and use predictive analytics to build a healthy fundraising base that weathers unexpected challenges and feeds your mission for years to come.

In this post, you’ll learn how predictive analytics can shift your approach from reacting to donor attrition to strategic prevention. Identifying at-risk donors before they lapse will help you build strong donor relationships and cultivate a fundraising program that grows stronger over time.

Understanding Donor Behavior Trends

Use the past to predict (and shape) the future.

Before planting, a farmer studies the land. In fundraising, you need to understand the lay of your own land by digging into historical data around donor behavior and trends. Looking back over the years can reveal patterns that help forecast future outcomes and guide strategy.

Start by analyzing trends in your data from the past five to 10 years. Pay specific attention to the following:

• Overall dollars raised
• Overall donor counts
• Overall average gift size
• Overall donor retention rates: While retention rate is important, it is increasingly important to know the retention rate sliced by both:
  • Consecutive years of giving, especially those in their second year (a critical retention milestone).
  • Gift band, focusing on donors who give at or above your organization’s median gift size.
• Donor lifecycle: Of all your donors, what share of them were retained, renewed, or acquired each year? For example, in the Blackbaud Fundraiser Performance Management community, comparing FY05 to FY24 shows fewer donors overall, with a growing share of acquisitions and a shrinking share of retained donors—a leaky bucket that’s not being refilled fast enough.
• Gift behavior: Among retained donors, how many of them upgraded, downgraded, or stayed the same?

This analysis helps you establish your organization’s “normal” across key metrics. From there, set stretch goals that aim to:

• Increase the share of multi-year retained donors who upgrade.
• Grow the number of donors giving at or above your current median gift size.

Predictive analytics platforms, like Blackbaud’s ResearchPoint™, Prospect Insights Pro, and Fundraiser Performance Management, transform complex donor data into actionable scores, enabling fundraisers to focus on the donors most likely to lapse or upgrade.

Using Predictive Analytics to Identify Patterns Before Donors Lapse

Uncover the risks before they take root.

Farmers monitor growth throughout the season. Have you ever heard that corn needs to be “knee high by the 4^th of July?” This is a milestone that some farmers use to gauge if they’ll be able to harvest their corn crops before winter. Fundraisers should do the same with monthly milestone health checks. Here’s how:

• Set annual goals based on your historical analysis, adjusting for changes in budget, staffing, or tools.
• Break those goals into monthly milestones. While dividing by twelve is a start, a more accurate method is to analyze donor and dollar patterns over the past five years. For example, December often yields more donors and dollars than February—plan accordingly.
• Track progress monthly to catch issues early. If you are falling short, adjust your strategy before the season ends.
• Build goals with steady, sustainable growth in mind. There are no “get rich quick” schemes in fundraising. Just like farming, it’s about consistency and care.

Beyond tracking metrics, use behavioral analysis and predictive models to identify at-risk donors:

• Look for signs of disengagement: downgraded gifts, fewer events attended, slower response times.
• Spot signs of deepening engagement: increased giving, more event participation, quicker responses.
• Evaluate giving designations: some may have stronger retention and upgrade rates than others.

Predictive models, like those offered by Blackbaud, can simplify this process. They turn complex data into actionable scores, helping you identify donors for timely re-engagement, as well as those who are already likely to stay and grow. It’s like knowing which crops can thrive in your specific soil and climate.

Building Your At-Risk Donor Identification Framework

Supporting tools for a healthy harvest.

Even the best farming plans need tools and teamwork. In fundraising, this means clear communication, strategic alignment, and openness to innovation.

• Educate internal stakeholders: Share your goals and progress transparently and consistently. Help your organization’s leadership understand why these metrics matter and how they support long-term growth.
• Stay true to your mission: Avoid zigzagging strategies. A consistent “true north” keeps your efforts focused and builds trust with donors.
• Provide staff training and adoption support: Change management and additional training can drive adoption to modern capabilities, equipping your team to leverage powerful predictive analytics for donor retention.
• Remain curious and adaptable: You don’t need to be an analytics expert. Many tools and platforms offer built-in models and insights. Stay open to innovative technologies that make your work easier and more effective.

These foundational steps set the stage for strategic donor retention, where predictive analytics move your team from insight to action, ensuring that every engagement is purposeful, and every donor relationship is nurtured for long-term success.

Strategic Donor Retention: Turning Predictive Analytics into Action

Cultivate and nurture even through storms.

Donor retention is not necessarily about chasing lapsed donors. It is about cultivating lasting relationships. Predictive analytics gives you the tools to:

• Analyze the past and measure vital signs.
• Set realistic stretch goals with monthly milestones.
• Use predictive models to identify and nurture your most promising donors.

Fundraising and farming both require patience, planning, and care. Just like healthy soil is the foundation for a thriving farm, a well-cultivated donor base is essential for sustainable fundraising. When you invest in donor analytics and predictive retention strategies, you can build a donor base that grows stronger and yields greater impact year after year.